"Now that the Q4 reporting season in Central and Eastern Europe has come to an end, Portfolio.hu has updated its EPS and EBITDA consensus files.The consensus is now published for the fifth time in its current format, i.e. covering major regional players as well as Hungarian blue chips. This time, however, we have collected forecasts only for companies listed on the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE), with the rest of the figures based on data provided by Datastream. For the first time, we have gathered estimates on 2011 as well, but only a handful of analysts were able to look that far ahead.
The results are summarized in the detailed tables below, and not only median, but also average figures, for our readers' convenience.
The contributing investment banks were the following: ABN Amro, Atlantik, Banc of America, Bear Stearns, BNP Paribas, BRE Bank, BudaCash, BZWBK, Cashline, Capital Bank, CIB, Citigroup, Concorde, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Erste, Fox-Pitt-Kelton, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, ING, JPMorgan, KBC, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Kepler Securities, Komercni Banka, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Metzler, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, Pekao, Perspektiva, PKO BP, Quaestor, Raiffesen, Redburn Partners, Sal Oppenheim, Societe Generale, UBS, UniCredit, WestLB, Wood.
Blue chips start with a clean slate?
From a profit growth perspective, Hungary's listed companies can start off with a clean slate after a rather poor performance in 2007, at least this is what the analysts' forecasts showed, as they were not significantly worse than those on the local papers' regional sector peers.
Pharmaceutical companies have a very tough year behind them, but the worse is apparently over for them. The analysts expect Egis to shine this year, but an outstanding performance from the second-largest local drugs maker would not be a shocker in view of the low basis. We have gathered consolidated and non-consolidated estimates on Egis, and the tables contain both of these. As for Richter, the consolidated numbers are adjusted for the impacts of a double acquisition carried out last year, while non-consolidated figures exclude these effects.
The EPS estimates on MOL spread in a wide range, since several analysts have already incorporated the impact of potential treasury share cancellations, but they view the extent of these differently. Therefore, we have also collected net profit forecasts for MOL, which you find in the table below.
The market has still no faith in the long-term management plans of MOL and OTP. The 2010 EBITDA consensus for the oil company came in at only HUF 458 bn, while management guidance of USD 3.5 bn leads us to HUF 595 bn even if we calculate with 170 HUF/USD. While OTP Bank's 2010 target of EUR 2 bn pre-tax profit implies HUF 1,400 EPS, the consensus was only HUF 1,242.
The figures on MOL, Magyar Telekom and OTP are all according to consolidated IFRS.
To see tables please click here
Other BSE papers
As the stock exchange environment takes a turn for the worse, the focus of analysts is apparently turning to a certain extent to attractively priced blue chips. This assumption is underpinned by the fact that fewer and fewer analysts are willing to assume the burden of giving an estimate on small caps.
There is no one that would cover Danubius and Linamar anymore, and the number of analysts providing estimates on Állami Nyomda and Rába has also dropped further, and there were only three analysts that gave a forecast on Orco, which is by far not a small stock.
The respondents have not provided many projections for 2011 even for the big ones, and estimates were few and far between for small caps already for 2010."
To see tables click here
Source: Portfolio Online Financial Journal
20.03.2008