Insights into Election Results by Hungarian Analysts
- 5 Apr 2022 7:02 AM
- Hungary Matters
“Sunday’s outcome was decided under clean and fair conditions,” strategic director of the Centre for Fundamental Rights, István Kovács, said, adding that the election system had “functioned perfectly”.
This meant that Hungary’s next parliament and prime minister would have “very strong legitimacy”. Rather it was the prime ministerial candidates that were the decisive factor in the performance gap between the two sides, Kovács said, arguing that not a single survey indicated that the war in Ukraine was the singular factor behind Fidesz’s victory.
He said Márki-Zay’s shortcomings as a PM candidate had quickly come to the surface after he clinched the opposition nomination. “He’s not actually a category A politician,” Kovács said of Márki-Zay. “His qualities were far weaker than what the left had expected of him.”
Nezőpont Institute’s director Ágoston Mráz said that never before had a government received such a strong mandate by voters in a democratic election in Hungary.
Mráz noted that the opposition had captured 35% of the vote, down from 45% in 2010, adding that the opposition had lost three out of every ten voters compared with 2018. He said he believed opposition voters had not wanted to see Márki-Zay as prime minister, while voters who were not Fidesz supporters but had been satisfied with Orbán’s performance ultimately ended up voting for the ruling parties.
Mráz said the opposition’s strategy of fielding a single candidate in each individual constituency had only worked in Budapest.
However, the opposition Democratic Coalition and Momentum parties could be satisfied with their results, he said, noting that while the former had increased its number of parliamentary seats from 9 to 16, the latter would enter parliament for the first time with 11 seats.
He said conservative Jobbik and green LMP were the biggest losers of the election, noting that Jobbik had lost 17 seats, while LMP may not even be able to form a parliamentary group.
Századvég Foundation vice president Zsolt Barthel-Rúzsa said he had shared other analysts’ view that Sunday’s ballot was a referendum on the prime minister. He branded Jobbik’s attempt to become a people’s party “a failure”.
Meanwhile, the united opposition’s list had been “blown apart”, he said. Barthel-Rúzsa added that the far right had “found a home” in the radical Mi Hazánk party, which entered parliament for the first time. “It is the opposition that has been replaced,” he said.
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