Analysts: March CPI Likely Eased A Bit On Food & Base Effects
- 11 Apr 2017 7:00 AM
Hungary’s annual inflation is likely to have eased somewhat last month on the back of downside food price pressures and base effects, London-based emerging markets economists said ahead of Tuesday’s data release. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said their forecast is for a temporary slowdown to an annual 2.8% in March after a 2.9% reading in February, following downside surprises in Germany and Spain.
“Our recent work suggests that underlying inflation is likely to pick up, on the back of tight labour markets and supportive policy”, they said.
On a similar note, London-based economists at JP Morgan said they expect annual consumer inflation to have eased to 2.8% last month as the large downside surprise in food prices in western Europe should imply largely flat food prices in Hungary, well below the typical seasonal rise of around 1%.
Coupled with a drop in fuel prices over the month, this should push annual inflation a tenth lower in March, they added.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said they expect headline inflation to have risen to 3.3% year-on-year in March, above the consensus forecast. “On our estimates, non-core factors will remain the main driver of the rise in inflation”.
Looking ahead, “we expect inflation to decelerate slightly in … we now forecast it around 3% after the increases driven by base effects in the first quarter.”
Republished with permission of Hungary Matters, MTI’s daily newsletter.
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