György Barta, CIB Bank, Budapest

"The trade balance showed its fourteenth consecutive surplus in March (EUR 653.1 mln), above both the consensus expectation and the preceding month’s result (quite similarly to the recently published German figures, which showed a healthy rise in imports from our region). The weaker forint could also give a transient lift to exports, thereby contributing to economic growth (the central bank has said recently that it is quite comfortable with the forint’s somewhat weaker levels)."

"Both exports and imports continued their double-digit growth, but the rise in domestic demand is still below the increase seen in external demand. 2010’s trade surplus could come in below the 2009 figure as domestic demand could slowly strengthen and the contribution from net exports to GDP could fade as the year goes on."

"The fact that the Western European recovery has been driven mainly by one-off factors (inventory rebuilding, fiscal stimuli) does warrant some caution, however, regarding Hungary’s export outlook (a brief relapse in the uptrend is imaginable, despite the recent favourable EMU statistics)."

"Clearly, the solid surpluses seen in the trade balance also have a favourable effect on the current account balance, which is expected by the central bank to show only a very small (0.4%) deficit this year."

Gábor Ambrus, 4Cast, Sofia

"Hungary's March preliminary trade surplus came at EUR 653.1mn a good margin above mkt's and 4cast's EUR 450mn and also up from EUR 486mn a year earlier. The pace of improvement is still steady, exports in EUR terms were up by 17.8% y/y, imports marginally lagged behind by posting a 16.0% y/y growth."

"Base effects of course boosted the y/y figures to a large extent. Looking forward, the slow but steady pick up in export demand and still sluggish domestic demand should ensure decent trade performance."

Source: Portfolio Online Financial Journal