The analysts noted that the economy stagnated in 2024–2025 while inflation hovered around 4.4%, and Hungary has already lost EUR 2 billion in cohesion funds, with another 27 rule‑of‑law conditions required before additional EU money can be released.

The analysts expect recovery‑fund payments to arrive no earlier than August 2026, while cohesion funds may not flow until 2027, creating timing risks for the Tisza Party’s spending promises, for example.

The report highlights that the National Bank of Hungary may delay rate cuts until late 2026, projecting only a 125‑basis‑point easing in 2027, even as markets currently price in two to three 25‑basis‑point hikes.

BMI also warns that Hungary’s energy dependence on Russia remains a structural vulnerability, esp ecially as the EU plans a full phase‑out of Russian energy by 2027, while the Tisza Party’s 2035 exit plan would require new EU exemptions.

The analysts add that Hungary’s blocking of the EU’s EUR 90 billion loan package for Ukraine and the political use of the Druzhba pipeline shutdown have intensified geopolitical tensions, with the country’s EU bargaining power expected to be weakened under new decision‑making rules.

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