Alternatively, the “Bavarian model” could prevail, where a strong central power is surrounded by parties to the left and right. Analysts agreed that Fidesz owed its election victory to a good campaign strategy and its ability to hold together its party faithful.

Sámuel Ágoston Mráz, head of the Nézőpont Institute, said that Fidesz received 600,000-700,000 fewer votes compared to four years ago because of the lower turnout at the polls this year.

The left’s election results have been unanimously deemed a failure, and were put down to a lack of strategy and the involvement of the polarising figure, leader of the Democratic Coalition and former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány.

Csaba Tóth, strategic director at the Republikon, said the left ran a real risk of falling into the trap of the “Polish example”, whereby the left was completely crushed and two rightwing parties remained. Mráz added, however, that Hungary’s left was more deeply rooted than the Polish one and Hungarian society more secularised, too.

He said a “Bavarian example” was more likely, in which Fidesz grabbed onto “the centre” and was able to govern in the long term, flanked by opposition parties of different sizes to the left and right. Mráz insisted that taking Gyurcsány on board had been a strategic mistake by Attila Mesterházy, leader of the Socialist party, as Gyurcsány was likely now to have a go at taking on the leadership of the left from the autumn.

He added that Gordon Bajnai, leader of the electoral alliance E14-PM, had acted like a company head during the campaign, seeing out his period of notice.

Further, Bajnai made a huge political mistake by handing back his mandate just before the European parliamentary elections, he said. Zoltán Lakner noted that while the Socialists had always been able to count on at least 1.5 million voters, the whole of the Unity alliance had only managed to muster 1.2 million.

Tóth said the radical nationalist Jobbik party had made its real gains during the campaign period, as polls suggested, and they were also helped by Fidesz which – probably strategically – refrained from getting involved in Jobbik controversies.

He added that Jobbik’s campaign showed signs of veering towards the centre by sending messages which the majority of Hungarians might agree with. One of these is that “the Fidesz government may be bad but the ones before it were, too,” he said.

Source www.hungarymatters.hu

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