Xpat Opinion: IMF & World Bank Reports Show A Hungary “Back On Track”

  • 16 Jun 2014 9:00 AM
Xpat Opinion: IMF & World Bank Reports Show A Hungary “Back On Track”
The International Monetary Fund and World Bank have recently released reports evaluating the Hungarian economy. The World Bank, as widely <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=41618.0"target="blank">reported </a> , predicts GDP to grow by 2.4 percent in 2014, while most saw as the key takeaway in the 68-page IMF country report (<a href="http://www.bbj.hu/economy/world-bank-projects-24percent-growth-for-hungary-in-2014_80839" target="blank">available here </a>) the recommendation to end interest rate cuts (<a href="http://www.marketpulse.com/20140609/imf-warns-hungary-interest-rate-cuts/" target="blank"> see an example here</a>).

There’s more to them than that, though. These institutions tend to be reserved in their outlook, and the purpose of these reports means that they tend to point out possible problems or weaknesses in the economy. That’s why it’s difficult not to notice a distinct change in tone in both of them.

For example, here’s how the IMF report opens:

The economy is recovering gradually, helped by supportive macroeconomic policies, favorable external conditions, and improved market confidence. This, together with a welcome reduction in vulnerabilities, supported Hungary’s financial stability during bouts of volatility in emerging markets over the past year. Nevertheless, external and public debts remain high, thus making the economy susceptible to shocks; and the country faces subdued growth prospects. The government’s strategy to address these challenges included sizeable fiscal consolidation and unconventional measures that increased the state’s role in the economy and shifted the burden of adjustment to specific sectors.

As we saw with the European Commission’s forecast, which gradually became more positive about Hungary, the above marks a significant shift. It clearly affirms that Hungary is finally on the track of economic recovery. In all fairness, the IMF report offers up constructive criticism about Hungary’s economic policies – like I said, that is the main goal – but it has not been this positive for a long time. An IMF country report on Hungary will never be as positive as those who call for the country’s credit rating upgrade, but this is a very good sign that even those, whose aim is to provide critical analysis, point to Hungary’s impressive results on the recovery track.

Meanwhile, as the new government takes office, Minister of National Economy Mihály Varga has announced the government’s economic goals for the coming four years (link in Hungarian). As global markets settle and we see more positive indicators in some countries in Europe, Hungary will continue with policies to reduce debt, keep deficits down and stimulate growth.

By Ferenc Kumin

Source: A Blog About Hungary

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