Gábor Török: Nothing follows for the government from the results of the last weekend’s local government election. It was the sixth election that Fidesz has won hands down. Why should it change anything then? But it has yet to be seen if last Sunday’s outcome was the last of a series. Actually it could be the last.

Gábor G. Fodor: I agree: we are at crossroads. I was wrong when early this year I wrote in Heti Válasz that a long 2015 would start in April [at the parliamentary election]. This year’s three elections have blocked every policy change. Consequently, the new term is only beginning now. Political reason dictated that the outcome of this [local government] election had to be waited for. But now action can start and now the prime minister can justify his actions saying that the electorate unambiguously supported his policies at three elections.

Török: Justifications can always be found.

G. Fodor: It’s beneficial for Fidesz if it is publicly discussed whether two-thirds of the electorate actually supports it. But it wouldn’t be good for Fidesz if analysts compared the results of the most recent local government election with those of 2010. In the present situation Fidesz has tremendous responsibility. It is the unquestionable leading force of Hungary without an opposition of note. Soon we will see if Fidesz intends to transforms social systems that no political force in the past 24 years had the courage to touch for fear of a short-term political backlash. And yes, Gábor, you are right, that [large-scale transformation of major systems] might make the outcome of the elections of 2018 touch and go. That will be a limit to how far the government will go. Whatever transformation of major systems is done, Fidesz will have to be sure it won’t jeopardize its chances at the polls in 2018.

Török: If there’s a time for action, it is now. Actually, steps should be taken because certain policy transformations are badly needed. Understandably there has been a certain order of priorities: during the first term [2010–2014] the political institutions and norms were thoroughly transformed but the revolutionary zeal [of Fidesz] stopped short of the systems that affect daily life. At long last they might address systems like health care, higher education and the welfare system. What has been done this far: centralization and the transformation of public administration are not enough to be called as the centerpiece of the 2014–2018 term. If we look at Viktor Orbán’s track record, he is unlikely to stand idly by; indeed some risky schemes might be up in his sleeve.

G. Fodor: The period ahead of us will test the government’s courage and ingenuity. One thing is certain: they will make a mighty push. Even the PM’s worst detractors appreciate his courage. Fidesz has boldly interfered with sub-systems, like reducing household utility bills and making an attempt to “save” FX mortgage borrowers. It will have to be seen if in areas that you have mentioned the political considerations can be reconciled with technocratic ones.

Fidesz is the only political force in Hungary that is capable of implementing measures of such magnitude. Fidesz’s definition of the notion “state” is flexible: it varies as the situation requires. That clearly differentiates it from the Socialists. The Socialists could also hammer out a government program and offer three definitions of what the state is but they could never implement their program.

Török: You’re right: for Fidesz such categories are means rather than the end. Fidesz has avoided the Socialists’ error of weighing grand reform designs instead of simply asking “What is good for us?” The Socialists’ attitude to reform was ineffective for their party and for Hungary alike. That Orbán is preparing to unveil some ambitious plan is clear also from his speech on Monday, obscure as it was.

G. Fodor: That speech was like the trailer of a new film, offering highlights but nothing concrete.

Török: The problem with trailers is that when you see a man on the screen, you can’t tell if he is the bad guy or the victim.

G. Fodor: Indeed. But as for the full film, all of us, Hungarians will have to see it and the “trailer” cannot foretell whether we like it. This of any times is suitable to act – what action will follow is the biggest question of this parliamentary term. If nothing happens, the government will keep “rolling the snowball” in front of them.

Török: Perhaps they won’t. They are likely to embark on a major program also because Fidesz has scored its sixth resounding victory and perhaps they will retain power for twenty more years. So it’s in their political interest to think in a longer term. If they bungle their job, they will be the first to be hit by the falling shards.

G. Fodor: I think Fidesz is capable of thinking in the long term. And vanity and the desire to make something memorable are key drives in politics.

Török: Today Fidesz’s decision-makers rule out that some other party could win the parliamentary elections in 2018. However, last Sunday’s local government election produced a surprise: the Left still showed signs of life though considering its track record, it should be dead by now. Who would have thought that in Szombathely [a town on the Austrian border] the Left wins half of the councilors’ seats? But no one in the Left has a reasonable cause for celebration. The Együtt Party [Together 2014 – Party for a New Era] seems to be on its last legs, while the MSZP [Hungarian Socialist Party] and DK [Democratic Coalition], the party of Ferenc Gyurcsány appear to have equal strength – which means the Left is still split. It’s as if Fidesz played in big league, and the minor leftwing parties are playing in little league. Neither Gyurcsány, nor [József] Tóbiás [leader of the Socialists] have the chance to transfer to the big league.

G. Fodor: The Hungarian Left has been knocked out. […] Only a unified Left would have the chance to beat the unified Right at the polls. To achieve that the Left would need a leader and a message that would overrule the political division that is forced on Hungary by Fidesz. István Schlett [a historian, born in 1939] has written than between 1945 and 1948 there was political pluralism in Hungary but in vain did the non-Communist forces propose a third road [between capitalism and Communism], they couldn’t overrule the fact that the Communist have divided the political sphere into Communist and Fascist.

Török: But the Russians were also here.

G. Fodor: And now Fidesz is here.

Török: Ouch! That was a radical sentence.

G. Fodor: Not that Fidesz represents a foreign occupation force – no, the parallel is not there. All I wanted to say is that in both cases there are certain facts that the opposition is too weak to change.

Török: That also applies to the Western democracies. At times a political party remains in power for a long time. Suffice it to refer to Japan, Scandinavia or the Federal Republic of Germany following 1949.

G. Fodor: [Assessing the results of the recent local government election] Lajos Bokros [Left–Liberal candidate for mayor of Budapest] declared that in a dictatorial system his collecting 36 percent of the vote is a resounding achievement.

Török: I think he was right, wasn’t he?

G. Fodor: In a dictatorial system, no opposition force would be allowed to collect 36 percent of the vote – which proves that Hungary is not a country under dictatorial rule. What Bokros said was just a pretext to hide the Left’s inability to overcome its crisis.

Török: The only hope left for the Left is that perhaps in the future Fidesz commits errors so serious that it will weaken itself. Even for Jobbik Party to benefit from popular discontent, Fidesz would have to collapse first. Jobbik cannot attract any more supporters from the Left.

G. Fodor: It is an illusion to think that Jobbik will be Fidesz’s next challenger. Perhaps it can increase its support by a percent or two but – if Fidesz doesn’t commit grave mistakes – Jobbik cannot win over supporters from Fidesz. Jobbik has won a surprise victory at Ózd [northeastern Hungary] and taken 13 more mayoral posts – but that doesn’t alter the overall picture.

Török: Orbán is special in that – though others cannot remove him from his post – he might decide to step down as prime minister at his own initiative. Look at his career of 25 years: the constant element in that is not what he thinks but the methods he has been applying to reach his goal of the day. His political accomplishment and approach are steady – even though the content of his policies are changeable indeed. Hungary’s Left is doctrinaire so it just cannot understand him.

G. Fodor: The leaders on the Left are fundamentalist who believe that politics is a question of content. Orbán’s secret is that politics is not about content but about methods.

Török: Outrageous as what you said, you are right. Politics equals method.

G. Fodor: Once you accept that, you have to dismiss the delusion that morality can seriously influence [politicians’] decisions. […] The goal in politics is to address certain social groups; and interests need to be coordinated; and you need to maneuver among groups and interests – but ideologies? No, they don’t count. That’s what the Left, and the LMP Party [Politics Can Be Different], cannot comprehend. […] (Gábor G. Fodor is a political scientist and a director of Századvég think tank. Gábor Török is a political scientist and director of Vision Politics think tank.)

Source:Heti Válasz

Translated by Budapest Telegraph