According to Fidesz think tank Szazadveg, support for the united coalition of liberal and left wing parties continues to fall, even as support for the radical right wing Jobbik party increases. Based on 1000 telephone interviews conducted between 27 and 30 March, only 27% of those polled remain undecided. 33% said they plan to vote for Fidesz. Of those certain to vote on Sunday, 51% said they would vote for Fidesz-KDNP. Only 19% of respondents and 25% of those certain to vote said they would vote for the left-wing united opposition.

14% of respondents and 18% of those certain to vote said they intended to vote for Jobbik.

5% of respondents and those certain to vote said they would vote for LMP.

Only 2% of those polled and 1% of those certain to vote said they would vote for parties other than the main parties/coalitions cited above.

Conservative pollster Nezopont Intézet (Point of View Institution) released figures this week showing Fidesz-KDNP getting 47% of the popular vote, the united opposition 28 per cent, Jobbik 19%, and LMP 5%. Of those polled 62% said they intended to vote on Sunday.

Based on 1500 telephone interviews conducted between 31 March and 2 April involving a “representative” cross section of Hungarian society, 37% said they supported Fidesz-KDNP, 19% the United Opposition, 15% Jobbik, and 2% LMP.

Results released by politically neutral pollster Median paint a sombre picture for the opposition parties, especially liberal/green party Politics Can Be Different (LMP) which must receive at least 5% of votes cast on Sunday in order to remain in parliament.

Based on mock election results from two weeks ago, 62 percent of participants said they were certain to vote on Sunday. This is significantly more than the 56 percent and 59 percent who said they were certain to vote two weeks before national parliamentary elections held in 2006 and 2010, respectively. (Actual voter participation in the first round of elections held in 2006 and 2010 was 64 percent and 68 percent, respectively).

According to Median only 18% of those polled and 23% of those certain to vote said they plan to vote for the united opposition–25% if one includes the 2% of respondents who mistakenly voted for “Together 2014″ which is part of the united opposition. However, this can not be taken for granted as the number of left wing voters who said they would definitely vote on Sunday actually decreased following the announcement in early February that the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), the Together 2014-PM alliance, Democratic Coalition (DK), and the Hungarian Liberal Party (MLP) would run a unified list of candidates and support the candidacy of MSZP chairman Attila Mesterhazy for prime minister.

Politics makes for strange bedfellows. The united alliance combining reformers and old guard socialist politicians and liberal and socialist economic policies is an awkward marriage necessitated by changes to Hungary’s election law doing away with second round elections. Single round elections tend to favor national conservative parties over left-wing and liberal parties which tend to be smaller and more numerous.

Of decided voters only 3% said they would cast their vote for LMP.

The Media poll shows a dramatic increase in voter support for Jobbik. 15% of respondents and 21% of those likely to vote said they planned to vote for Hungary’s radical, right-wing party.

Nearly one in two surveyed said they wanted to see a change in government.

Source: BudapestBeacon.com - republished with permission.

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Picture credit: Szilárd Koszticsák, MTI