Hungarian Forint Remains Among Most Attractive EM Currencies
- 29 Apr 2010 3:00 AM
"This is not fully aligned with our underlying currency outlook. While we are bullish BRL and think the scope for SGD appreciation is limited near term, we are more neutral HUF and PLN and would not advocate being long THB given the escalation in civil unrest in Thailand," Credit Suisse said.
The INR, THB and ZAR scores are the largest gainers this month, while the CNY score sees the biggest fall.
The March 2010 Scorecard advocated being long HUF, BRL and PLN against being short IDR, INR, ZAR and RUB in April. This generated an estimated return vs USD of -0.7%.
In early April, the forint was quoted at around 265 against the euro, while it is currently at around 270.
Based on 11 market and macroeconomic indicators CS publishes its Scorecard on a monthly basis, examining 17 EM currencies. The higher the points given, the bigger the upside potential of the currency is, i.e. positive score implies underlying variables are currency positive, while negative scores are currency negative.
Over the past fix months, Hungary’s forint has finished in the top3 every time, but in the Scorecard comprised between 27 March and 27 April it has finished lower than last month, although it was given the same point (4.5).
"The Scorecard underperformed a strategy of going long the three currencies with the highest carry and short the three currencies with the lowest carry (the "carry basket") which notionally returned an estimated +1.2% vs USD. It also underperformed a strategy of buying and holding all 17 EM currencies vs USD (the "index") which notionally returned an estimated +1.8% vs USD," CS said.
Notionally, a portfolio process that bought the three currencies with the highest scores and sold the three currencies with the lowest scores has generated positive total returns in US dollar terms of +61.2% since inception in January 2008. This compares with an index return of + 4.7% and a carry-basket return of +17.7%.”
LATEST NEWS IN business