Hungarian Currency Will Not Weaken Further, Optimism Rises

  • 7 Jul 2010 1:00 AM
Hungarian Currency Will Not Weaken Further, Optimism Rises
"Fund managers taking part in’s monthly poll, are getting more optimistic in connection with the level of the Hungarian government securities yields’ future level. No fund manager forecasts a weaker than 285.3 forints/euro level in the next 12 months.

The number of those expecting lower yields grew, and more investment professionals overweight Hungarian bonds compared to their own benchmarks. It is worth to remember though that most of them still keep this category underweighted.

The contributors to the poll were: Aberdeeen Asset Management, AXA, Buda-Cash, Budapest Asset Management, Citadella Consulting, Concorde, Erste, Equilor, Generali, ING, K&H, OTP, Quaestor, Raiffeisen.

After the 4% weakening of the forint in June, fund managers became more optimistic about the forint`s future performance. In the next 3 months, 23% of those polled expect the strengthening of the forint, while one month ago none of them forecasted such a move. Most of the experts are still foresee a stagnating currency exchange rate in the +/-2% band.

As far as one year forecast is concerned, optimism is strong, no one expects weaker than 285.3 forints/euro, and this unity is rare in the history of our polls. Most of the contributors (62%) forecast stagnation, 38% expects strengthening between 2% and 5%.

According to the fund managers` opinion, investor sentiment will return to normal, as they foresee improvement not only regarding the Hungarian currency`s exchange rate, but also the yields of HGB`s. One can not say that there are many more experts forecasting the yield of Hungarian securities to shrink, only one fund manager projected the MAX index higher than the present level.

On the long term however they all agree that yields are going to come down. During the last month, the number of fund managers expecting 5-10% hike of the MAX index, increased by 64%.

Similarly to the expected decrease of the yields, the number of professional investors overweighting HGB`s in their portfolio, increased form 7%, to 17%. It is worth to remember though that most of the pros still underweight this category."

Source: Portfolio Online Financial Journal

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